The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
Identifieur interne : 000E06 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000E05; suivant : 000E07The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza
Auteurs : Shweta Bansal [États-Unis] ; Babak Pourbohloul [Canada] ; Nathaniel Hupert [États-Unis] ; Bryan Grenfell [États-Unis] ; Lauren Ancel Meyers [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.
Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.
Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0009360
PubMed: 20195468
PubMed Central: 2829076
Affiliations:
- Canada, États-Unis
- Géorgie (États-Unis), Maryland, New Jersey, Nouveau-Mexique, Pennsylvanie, Texas, État de New York
- Austin (Texas), Princeton (New Jersey), University Park (Pennsylvanie)
- Université d'État de Pennsylvanie, Université de Princeton, Université du Texas à Austin
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British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>British Columbia</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hupert, Nathaniel" sort="Hupert, Nathaniel" uniqKey="Hupert N" first="Nathaniel" last="Hupert">Nathaniel Hupert</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff5"><addr-line>Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Public Health, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">État de New York</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff6"><addr-line>Preparedness Modeling Unit, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Preparedness Modeling Unit, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan" sort="Grenfell, Bryan" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan" last="Grenfell">Bryan Grenfell</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff7"><addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">New Jersey</region><settlement type="city">Princeton (New Jersey)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université de Princeton</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff8"><addr-line>Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Section of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Texas</region><settlement type="city">Austin (Texas)</settlement></placeName><orgName type="university">Université du Texas à Austin</orgName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff9"><addr-line>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods and Findings</title><p>Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shift the epidemiological landscape in exactly this way.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our analysis provides a simple demographic explanation for the age bias observed for H1N1/09 attack rates, and suggests that this bias may shift in coming months. These results have significant implications for the allocation of public health resources for H1N1/09 and future influenza pandemics.</p></sec></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chan, M" uniqKey="Chan M">M Chan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Greenberg, M" uniqKey="Greenberg M">M Greenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lai, M" uniqKey="Lai M">M Lai</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hartel, G" uniqKey="Hartel G">G Hartel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wichems, C" uniqKey="Wichems C">C Wichems</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gittleson, C" uniqKey="Gittleson C">C Gittleson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Garcia Garcia, L" uniqKey="Garcia Garcia L">L Garcia-Garcia</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valdespino Gomez, J" uniqKey="Valdespino Gomez J">J 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Kilbourne</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Maryland</li><li>New Jersey</li><li>Nouveau-Mexique</li><li>Pennsylvanie</li><li>Texas</li><li>État de New York</li></region><settlement><li>Austin (Texas)</li><li>Princeton (New Jersey)</li><li>University Park (Pennsylvanie)</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'État de Pennsylvanie</li><li>Université de Princeton</li><li>Université du Texas à Austin</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Pennsylvanie"><name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name></region><name sortKey="Bansal, Shweta" sort="Bansal, Shweta" uniqKey="Bansal S" first="Shweta" last="Bansal">Shweta Bansal</name><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan" sort="Grenfell, Bryan" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan" last="Grenfell">Bryan Grenfell</name><name sortKey="Grenfell, Bryan" sort="Grenfell, Bryan" uniqKey="Grenfell B" first="Bryan" last="Grenfell">Bryan Grenfell</name><name sortKey="Hupert, Nathaniel" sort="Hupert, Nathaniel" uniqKey="Hupert N" first="Nathaniel" last="Hupert">Nathaniel Hupert</name><name sortKey="Hupert, Nathaniel" sort="Hupert, Nathaniel" uniqKey="Hupert N" first="Nathaniel" last="Hupert">Nathaniel Hupert</name><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name><name sortKey="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" sort="Meyers, Lauren Ancel" uniqKey="Meyers L" first="Lauren Ancel" last="Meyers">Lauren Ancel Meyers</name></country><country name="Canada"><noRegion><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, Babak" sort="Pourbohloul, Babak" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B" first="Babak" last="Pourbohloul">Babak Pourbohloul</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, Babak" sort="Pourbohloul, Babak" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B" first="Babak" last="Pourbohloul">Babak Pourbohloul</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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